US/EST: 21 May 2012 13:12
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vicy8 - Custom Event - Finishing Order of 6 CMU Players in Sunday Million

Tournament information
Other Custom Event
Buyin $0 ($USD)
Start Date: 23 Nov 2009 11:10 (EST) Preview
(Finished Date: 23-Nov-2009 (EST))
finished
Share details
$2.00 per share (1.00%)
price/value Infinity
Shares Available? 99 (99.0%)
Shares sold 1 (1.0%)
Player share 0%
Player payment options ChipMeUp $, PokerStars, FullTilt
Share Graph Event 42855
Results
Cash Winnings: $0.00
Winnings per share: $0.00 Return on Investment: -100.00%
Description

These are 6 popular players on CMU who are planning on playing the Sunday Million on November 22, 2009:

Adgee (PS name: Adgee), dunkelb1 (PS name: dunkelb1), gank (PS name: gank), GBecks (PS name: GBecks), kickyourace (PS name: kickyourace1) and Micon (PS name: micon).

If you correctly pick the order that these 6 players finish relative to each other and whether they finish ITM (In The Money) or not, I will pay you $100 profit for your $2 share.

For example, if I believe these 6 players will finish in alphabetical order and 3 of the 6 will finish ITM, I would place my bet and write this in the comments (1 being the person who lasts the longest and 6 being the first one to bust):

1. Adgee/ITM

2. dunkelb1/ITM

3. gank/ITM

4. GBecks/NO

5. kickyourace/NO

6. Micon/NO

In the event that any of these players does not play in the Sunday Million, this prop bet will be rolled over to the following week (up to 4 attempts).  If event is not completed after 4 Sundays, this event will be canceled.  If you do not specify whether you believe the player will be ITM or not, I will automatically assume that you think the player will be ITM.

If you correctly predict the order and whether each player finishes ITM, I will pay out $102 for your $2 share.

If you place a bet that is identical to someone else's bet, only the first bettor's share will count and the second bettor will be refunded (or given a chance to select a different order).  No bets received after 4:30 PM EST on November 22, 2009 will be accepted.

Share Allocation

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Buyer Number of stakes Percentage Status Action
open99 (1.0% each)99.0%open
 9999.0%openshare buying finished
tanker232 [profile]11.0%sold via CMU$ 
1/100 sold 
Player share - vicy8 [profile]0%Unavailable 

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Comments

tanker232 (2 years ago - 22 Nov 2009 10:45 UTC)

1) Gbecks ITM
2) Gank ITM
3) Adgee ITM
4) KYA
5) Micon
6) Dunkelb1


tanker232 (2 years ago - 22 Nov 2009 10:48 UTC)

4/5/6 No No No


ThomasBihl (2 years ago - 22 Nov 2009 16:45 UTC)

Another fantastic idea at absolutely disgusting odds.

If I calculate correctly there are 6*5*4*3*2*1=720 possible outcomes so that gives us 50:1 odds on a 720:1 chance. But wait we also have to correctly guess if all 6 make the money or not.
So we have to parlay the odds with the 7 possibilieteis of the ITM factor (6/5/4/3/2/1/0) so now we are looking at 720*7=5040:1 odds.

50:1 offered about a 5040:1 chance I think I pass…


vicy8 (2 years ago - 22 Nov 2009 16:55 UTC)

That’s right Thomas. The odds of each possible pattern are not equally likely. I am going to assume that you like Adgee and GBecks a little more than you like KYA. I’m going to need to put up. If you believe KYA is certain to bust first (obviously far from certain), odds would become 120-1 and then multiply by the factor of selecting ITM or not correctly.


tanker232 (2 years ago - 23 Nov 2009 05:10 UTC)

did i win?


vicy8 (2 years ago - 23 Nov 2009 12:48 UTC)

The final finishing order:

1. gank – 486/ITM
2. GBecks – 608/ITM
3. Adgee – 786/ITM
4. dunkelb1 849/ITM
5. micon – 1123/ITM
6. Kickyourace1 – 7496/NO


MDMWINS (2 years ago - 23 Nov 2009 19:29 UTC)

close nice 5 ITM :)

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