kalkaan - Custom Event - 500 x 10.4$ DON grind with 50 buy-in

Forgot to mention that if go busto, then ofcourse won’t continue till 5200$ played through.

I have not got payment from cnut, although sent him email about it yesterday and will cancel his share. Will start playing today in a couple of hours.

cnut transferred funds just before I started, so the share is his.
Started carefully and took only 8 tables and got ITM 5 out of 8. Once cracked aces, when hit set and once made comeback from 55 chips. Sadly after comeback still got bubble place, when AQ didn’t improve vs big stack 44. At first I think I do not take high paste in playing, must adjust my game a little bit I guess.

50 tournaments done and I can’t say anything positive about that.
ITM 50%; ROI -3,8% and losses 20$.

What really pisses me off, is that according to $EV I should have in these 50 tournaments ROI 22,1% and profit 115,13$.

The difference is 135$!!! That number shows, how bad I run. And I run bad right now almost in any game of poker. I get sucked out really bad and mindset is demolished.

I make right calls vs regulars, knowing they push any2 there and still lose:
A9 vs Q6
K8 vs TJ
A6 vs Q7
AQ vs K7

But this is nothing compared to this: (all those preflop allin hands I lost)
AA vs 99
QQ vs jj
JJ vs 88

Got QQ on Btn and get 2 limpers, I raise to 5BB to get a caller. Flop 4dAd8s and I raise villain allin – he calls with 67o and hits 5 on river to get his gutshot – WP, sir.

Why I’m not showing good profit right now – losing these preflop allin hands:
AK vs J6
AK vs AJ and on the other table simultaneously AK vs AQ
AK vs AJ again
88 vs 96
A7 vs Q6
A9 vs QK
TT vs AK
66 vs Q7

and so on…..

Who wants to see the HEM graph, red line shows how it should be aproximatly and green, where the profit is:
http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/8647/haigerun.png

Next 50 played, ITM 42%, ROI -19.2% and losses -100$.
Overall 100 played, ITM 46%, ROI -11,5%, losses -120$.
HEM graph: http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5770/sitt100.png

Running still really sick.
Some examples:
I call MP 17BB allin, holding AA on BB with 9 BB left. He shows A4o and flop comes 3 clubs and river another club.
In couple of minutes losing QQ twice to AK.
I call with QQ and villain shows Q9o, flop QT8, giving me trips, but river J gives villain straight.
On bubble, holding Q6o and board 7Q4 rainbow I go allin. Villain has 9Ts and both turn and river are his suit and out again.

I’ll continue playing tomorrow.

Will continue playing now.

50 games played again and I’m on tilt, frustrated and angry as hell. Even I made some profit this set, it is still unbelievable bad run.
50 games played, ITM 56%; ROI 7,7%; profit 40$.
Overall 150 games played, ITM 49,3%; ROI -5,1%; losses 80$.

All the time I make very good decisions, calling regular player allins. They steal any2 there. And I lose to total crap hands:
QKs vs 83o, he gets set on flop
A6 vs 64, turn gives him straight
AQ vs K4 flop 4, turn K
6Qs vs 82s, he gets his flush on river
K4 vs 6Jo, turn 6
KA vs 9Ts, turn 9

1st hand of last set I get KK and raise to 5BB from MP, MP1 and BB calls. Flop 28J all same suits as my K and BB went insta-allin. Thought a little and put him on some kind of draw ar hit something there with flush draw and I called to see his 8J and out we go. Lol, guys name was kamikaze05.
No more comments, I’m really mad right now.
HEM graph of these 150 tournaments, I run soooo hot FFS:
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/7906/sitt150.png

Why I am so pissed? Here is 10.4 tournament results what I have in my HEM database. http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/9464/104overall.png
How in hell can I run so bad there. Donks suck out, I make good calls vs regulars and get punished etc. Watch the difference of the red line EV$ and green – actual winnings.

To compare it with 5.2, what I have in my HEM database.
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6654/52overall.png
There the lines are pretty close and the difference is OK. Luckily I’m above the EV$ line there, but I wouldn’t be angry, if would be same amount lower than that.

I don’t know, whom have I insulted that I deserve so bad run in 10.4$ FFS!

Continuing playing now.

Next 50 played. ITM 48%, ROI -7,7%, losses -40$.
Overall 200 played, ITM 49%, ROI -5,8%, losses -120$.

Won’t add graph, I still run worse than EV$. The difference is 264$. Thats the amnount I’m below EV$ in 200 tournaments. Great result, don’t you think.

I put some reasons here:
Preflop allins I defended my BB:
QQ vs JK he gets straight
88 vs A6, turn 6, river 6
KQs vs 83, flop 33, river 8
A6 vs 64, he gets straight
JJ vs JKs, flop K, turn gives him flush
6K vs 4Q, flop 4Q
K4 vs 6J, turn 6
A2 vs QT flop QT
Analysed playing on BB these 200 tournaments: my equity was below 50% (average 32%), I won 3 times out of 17. When I was ahead more than 50% (average 66%), I won 17 times of 35. When I lost, fell out of the tournament.

Playing with pairs these 200 tournaments (allins only):
AA got 10 times, lost 3 of them to A4o, QQ and 99
KK got 14 times, lost 5 of them to AKo, AJs, JJ, 8Jo, AA.
QQ got 12 times, lost 7 of them to Q9o, JJ, 67o, JKo, JAs, AKo, AKo
JJ got 9 times, lost 3 of them to JKs, AKs, KK.

No good news here. 50 played again, ITM 54%, ROI 3,8% and profit 20$.
Overall 250 played, ITM 50%, ROI -3,8% and losses -100$.
There wont be any profit in this event, if the sick run continues. Was over 50$ up, when 37 was played and last set started AA vs JJ, J on flop and AK vs A8, A8 on flop.
I call allins at the right time, knowing villain is on any2 cards there. Rarely they have a hand and almost all of these I lose, but usually I am ahead – still most of the time suckouts come, for punishing me of making a good call.
I’ll put a graph again, now losses are -100$ and EV$ is 139,5$. EV$ is not great either, only 5,4%, but it is max I can achieve with these cards.
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/2006/graaf250.png

Continuing playing now.

Sorry guys. Event just happened to start on a horrible downswing.
Last 50 ITM 40%, ROI -23,1, losses -120$.
Overall ITM 48,3%, ROI -7,1, losses -220$.
So if losing next set 40$, must move to 5,2$ DON’s.

Difference between real results and EV$ is more than 300$. So it means I lose in 10,4$ tournaments every game I play more than 1$ to bad beats, its 10% ROI!!!
Last 50 games difference was more than 60$.

Some examples:
idiot limps and I push from SB with 14BB, he calls with QK and is almost allin, ofcourse hits. Exact the same way lost 3 times last 50 tournamnets.
Guy steals from button minraising, I push 15BB with AQ on BB, he calls with 9Ts and hits T on flop.
Great player limps UTG, I push 15BB with AK, he calls with 68o and river is 8. Wp, sir.
Ran into AA several times.

25 tourneys played again, 40$ up, but so pissed at poker right now.
A very good play again:
I raise AQo UTG to get 3bet from a spewball 23% 3bet stats. Obv chips go in, 7 left and winning this one would be getting money there. Spewball calls with 9Qs, gets 9 on flop and A on river gives him flush. WP, sir.
On 2 tables simultaneously I run into AA.
I get nice double A4s vs K3s on bubble. Next hand other shortie pushes and I have him covered and have to call holding AKo. If he gets that one, I’m in trouble. He shows K9s and hits 9 on flop. Weee again bubbleboy.
A6s I steal from button, raising 2,5BB and SB calls. 578 flop, not very good, but I cbet IP to get a call. Turn 4 gives me second nuts and after check I push the rest in. Obv SB had 69 for the nuts.

50 done again, half way we were 40$ up. Obviously next 25 was bloodbath and 60$ in 25 DON, lol. I rename these tournaments NON – nothing or nothing for me.
When I’m small and forced allin, I have crap hands vs pairs all the time. I push Ax hands to get called by better Ax hands. 3 times last 25 tournaments AQ vs AK. Ran into AA 4 or 5 times. etc, etc, etc.
Last 18 tournaments played I got ITM only 4 of them WTF!!!

So its 350 played; ITM 48,6%; ROI -6,6% and losses 240$.
I can’t even imagine worce result. Its a nightmare. If lose 20$ more, must move to 5,2$. Can’t wait to end this crap.

50 played again, this one went better:
ITM 64%; ROI 23,1%; profit 120.
Overall 400 played, ITM 50,5%; ROI -2,9%; losses 120$.
Is the downswing finally over???

50 again. After 25 was 20$ up and last 25 ended -20$. 2 tables simultaneously ran into AA. Pairs were cracked, I got a piece of the board, then villain with bad stats got set.
Worst play was, when CL was on my right and went allin every time I was on BB and gave other guys a walk, so blinds ate my stack so finally had to call with 99. He had 8Ts and hit T on flop. River 9 gave me set, but him straight.
Oh well, 50 tournaments still left.

Now stats 450 played, ITM 50,4%; ROI -3%; losses 140$. Lol I can’t beat the rake.

And its done. Last 50 losses were 120$ again. I’m so tired right now. Will put some hands here tomorrow. Overall result is:
Played 500 tournaments; ITM 49,4%; ROI -5%; losses -260$.
HEM graph http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/1725/10kogugra…

After played more than 5000 Double or Nothing tournaments overall, levels up to 110$ it is unbelievable bad result. But you can see regulars playing soft with each other, folding on SB being CL and other regular is on BB. On other games I see them calling with any2 with smaller stacks. Huge suckouts done all the time, when getting good cards. Later getting bad cards and obviously you win rarely being behind.
Usually the collusion is very hard to notice, but if you know, what to look, you will notice yourself. Thats why I left from PKR playing DON, it was ridiculous there.

If I win some decent $ this month on Pokerstars VIP freerolls, I’ll transfer extra $ to stakers.